With less than two weeks remaining in March, bitcoin is narrowly positioned to sidestep what would have been a historically significant losing streak. The leading cryptocurrency has gained approximately 2% on the month, holding firm above the $68,000 threshold. A late-month reversal, however, would push the asset into six consecutive monthly closes in negative territory — a milestone that would match the longest recorded downturn, last observed during the protracted bear cycle stretching from August 2018 through January 2019.
From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) continues to command close attention from market analysts. This widely followed indicator — calculated by averaging bitcoin's weekly closing prices across the preceding 200 weeks — has historically functioned as a durable floor during sustained downturns, representing the long-term mean cost basis for a significant portion of the market.
In the present cycle, the 200WMA is positioned near the $59,000 level. Bitcoin tested that zone with a dip to approximately $60,000 in early February, and has since held above that threshold for nearly two months — a consolidation pattern that many technical analysts interpret as an affirmation of underlying structural support. Worth noting is the 2022 bear market's exceptional nature: it remains the only cycle on record during which bitcoin sustained a prolonged period beneath the 200WMA, trading below that benchmark continuously from June through December of that year.
Looking beyond dollar-denominated price action, bitcoin is beginning to demonstrate meaningful relative strength when measured against gold. The asset is on course to post its first positive monthly candle against the precious metal in eight months, with the bitcoin-to-gold ratio currently hovering around 16 ounces. Gold itself has experienced notable turbulence, trading near $4,200 after a sharp pullback from the $4,000 range — representing a single-session decline of approximately 5%. The metal has now retraced more than 25% from its January peak, erasing an estimated $7.5 trillion in market capitalization.
Examining historical cycle data, each successive bitcoin market cycle has tended to produce progressively shallower drawdowns in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio relative to its respective peak. In the current cycle, bitcoin declined roughly 71% against gold from its all-time high reached in December 2024. Historically, peak-to-trough sequences in this ratio have played out over approximately 400 days — a timeframe that, if the pattern holds, suggests the current period of underperformance relative to gold may be approaching exhaustion.
Should bitcoin successfully defend support above the 200WMA while simultaneously reclaiming upside momentum against gold, the confluence of these signals would offer a technically grounded basis for concluding that the broader long-term uptrend remains structurally intact.
Bitcoin leads crypto rebound to $71,000 as $550 million in shorts liquidated
BTC climbs despite escalating Middle East tensions, outperforming gold as altcoins rally and derivatives data signals cautious but improving market sentiment.
Disclosure & Policies: CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.
